Preem is Sweden's largest fuel company, operating depots with biofuels, diesel, heating oils, and a wide range of other products spread across the country.

The business is characterized by significant capital investment and costly and complex logistics, as Preem manages the majority of the value chain.

To meet customer demand, the tanks at the depots should never run empty while still avoiding unnecessary capital tie-up. Demand for products fluctuates over time and is influenced by both internal and external factors.

To estimate product demand for a given time period and location, Preem previously relied on simple historical data and estimates from experienced employees - a manual approach with significant room for error.

Violet has developed a forecasting tool that utilizes AI to estimate the demand for Preem's products. The forecasts now consider multiple variables, including backward-looking factors such as withdrawals during the same period last year and the most recent weeks. The forecast also considers patterns in months, weekends, and weekdays, as well as depot and product trends.

The models are based on Temporal Fusion Transformer and are combined with traditional statistical models. These models generate daily forecasts 45 days ahead for each product and depot. The forecasting tool was implemented in the spring of 2023 and is currently used by depot planners.

The AI solution enables forecasts to incorporate a wide range of factors, making the predictions more accurate while streamlining the forecasting work of depot planners.

Improved forecasts allow for meeting customer demand efficiently while optimizing capital investment and logistics, resulting in increased profitability, satisfied customers, and reduced environmental impact.